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Emeritus Prof Christopher May

While data on the proportion of each state's defence capability made up of imported weaponry is difficult (impossible) to find, what we do have is data on exports;

This reveals that two thirds of all military imports used by European states come from America.

If Military Keynsianism (implied or explicit) is about ramping up domestic capacity, pivoting away from US-made weapons systems looks like being a major priority.

In the short(ish) term that may be pretty difficult


h/t FT

@ChrisMayLA6 Cheers Chris. I don't suppose you've the time to do some data diving on Fabrique National. A Belgian armaments manufacturer. They made a huge fortune supplying both sides during the Congolese Wars and elsewhere. I'm sure they had a NATO connection too.

@Palky55

There's some relatively recent data here:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FN_Herst

but I cannot quickly find any data on NATO current use of their weapons (although there's quite a lot on past hardwoods from FN used by NATO forces)....

en.wikipedia.orgFN Herstal - Wikipedia

@ChrisMayLA6 but in the long term Trump will lose a pretty important market with all his talks about tariffs. Europe has existing defence production, they just need to increase the production lines.

@nickapos

Well, not quite so easy.... at least in the UK much of the production is small batch/specialist, while the mass-produced (cheaper) arms come from the bigger US firms - switching from one to the other (in the UK) will not be just an issue of making more of what is already being produced.... increasingly (widening) the lines produced is not such an easy job as just ramping up numbers

@ChrisMayLA6 yeah UK has removed a lot manufacturing capacity and will need more time to rebuild what was lost, but French, German, Italian and Spanish are producing complete solutions from tanks all the way to aircraft carriers.

@nickapos

Which will be interesting; if the UK merely swaps replaces US imports with EU imports, while the defence logic might be served the Military Keynsianism dimension will be largely undermined as any stimulus will flow to the supplying countries...

@ChrisMayLA6 yeah and that is one of the reasons why Macron is so keen on this. The same applies to German industries as well.

@ChrisMayLA6 I expect UK to participate in joint projects though I don’t think everything will be manufactured in mainland Europe