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isn’t this contract basically the structure of an assassination market? obviously not accusing anyone. but do we think contracts like this are okay?
(i’m not sure on what prediction market this allegedly traded.)
@interfluidity isnt it just frontrunning?
@jonathankoren i think it’s very unlikely anything bad happened here. just to be clear.
the idea of an assassination market is you set up “prediction market” contracts on someone’s death. people who might like to see that death bet *against* it, keeping the price/probability of “yes” low. someone in a position to assassinate buys lots of cheap “yes” contract and flips the price/probability to 100¢ by their action. the financial losers effectively pay for a hit by an anonymous party.
@interfluidity looking at it on the site itself (https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024) it seems like this one was for funny money (points, essentially) only, so no one would get rich off it.
I would guess it probably is illegal to gamble money on death, if only because gambling in general is pretty tightly regulated in most places so it would probably have to be explicitly allowed.
@interfluidity Did you read Matt Levine's pieces about the life insurance policy secondary market? Wild.