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WordofTheHour<a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/estimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#estimate</a> : to judge and form an opinion of the value of, from imperfect data- French: estimer- German: schätzen/annehmen- Italian: stima- Portuguese: estimativa- Spanish: estimado------------See previous words @ <a href="https://wordofthehour.org/r/past" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://wordofthehour.org/r/past</a>

Bytes EuropeNorth Korea Stands to Lose All 12,000 Troops in Kursk by April: Analysts <a href="https://www.byteseu.com/665180/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.byteseu.com/665180/</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/analyst" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#analyst</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/BusinessInsider" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#BusinessInsider</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/CasualtyRate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#CasualtyRate</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/Conflicts" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Conflicts</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/december" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#december</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/estimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#estimate</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/Kursk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Kursk</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/NorthKorea" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#NorthKorea</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/NorthKoreanTroop" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#NorthKoreanTroop</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/Pyongyang" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Pyongyang</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/Russia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Russia</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/Seoul" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Seoul</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/SouthKorea" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#SouthKorea</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/Ukraine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Ukraine</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/War" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#War</a> <a href="https://pubeurope.com/tags/WashingtonBasedThinkTank" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#WashingtonBasedThinkTank</a>

pglpm<a href="https://lgbtqia.space/@AeonCypher" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@AeonCypher</a> <a href="https://mastodon.world/@paninid" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@paninid</a> "A p-value is an <a href="https://c.im/tags/estimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#estimate</a> of p(Data | Null Hypothesis). " – not correct. A p-value is an estimate ofp(Data or other imagined data | Null Hypothesis)so not even just of the actual data you have. Which is why p-values depend on your stopping rule (and do not satisfy the "likelihood principle"). In this regard, see Jeffreys's quote below.Imagine you design an experiment this way: "I'll test 10 subjects, and in the meantime I apply for a grant. At the time the 10th subject is tested, I'll know my application's outcome. If the outcome is positive, I'll test 10 more subjects; if it isn't, I'll stop". Not an unrealistic situation.With this stopping rule, your p-value will depend on the probability that you get the grant. This is not a joke."*What the use of P implies, therefore, is that a hypothesis that may be true may be rejected because it has not predicted observable results that have not occurred.* This seems a remarkable procedure. On the face of it the fact that such results have not occurred might more reasonably be taken as evidence for the law, not against it." – H. Jeffreys, "Theory of Probability" § VII.7.2 (emphasis in the original) <<a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198503682.001.0001" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198503682.001.0001</a>>.<a href="https://c.im/tags/bayesian" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#bayesian</a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/bayes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#bayes</a> <a href="https://c.im/tags/statistics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#statistics</a>

➴➴➴Æ🜔Ɲ.Ƈꭚ⍴𝔥єɼ👩🏻‍💻<a href="https://mastodon.world/@paninid" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@paninid</a> p-values, to a large extent, exist because calculating the posterior is computationally expensive. Not all fields use the .05 cutoff.A p-value is an <a href="https://lgbtqia.space/tags/estimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#estimate</a> of p(Data | Null Hypothesis). If the two <a href="https://lgbtqia.space/tags/hypotheses" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#hypotheses</a> are equally likely and they are mutually exclusive and they are closed over the <a href="https://lgbtqia.space/tags/hypothesis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#hypothesis</a> space, then this is the same as p(Hypothesis | Data).Meaning, under certain assumption, the p-value does represent the actually probability of being wrong. However, given modern computers, there is no reason that <a href="https://lgbtqia.space/tags/Bayesian" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Bayesian</a> odds-ratios can't completely replace their usage and avoid the many many problems with p-values.

WIST Quotations has moved!A quotation from Bierce, Ambrose:««««« ARCHITECT, n. One who drafts a plan of your house, and plans a draft of your money; who estimates the whole cost, and himself costs the whole estimate. »»»»»Full quote, sourcing, notes: <a href="https://wist.info/bierce-ambrose/23452/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no">https://wist.info/bierce-ambrose/23452/</a><a href="https://zirk.us/tags/quote" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#quote</a> <a href="https://zirk.us/tags/quotes" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#quotes</a> <a href="https://zirk.us/tags/quotation" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#quotation</a> <a href="https://zirk.us/tags/architect" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#architect</a> <a href="https://zirk.us/tags/budget" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#budget</a> <a href="https://zirk.us/tags/estimate" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#estimate</a> <a href="https://zirk.us/tags/homeimprovement" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#homeimprovement</a> <a href="https://zirk.us/tags/remodel" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#remodel</a>

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