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Steve Randy Waldman

isn’t this contract basically the structure of an assassination market? obviously not accusing anyone. but do we think contracts like this are okay?

(i’m not sure on what prediction market this allegedly traded.)

Price graph of a prediction market, “Will Jimmy Carter die in 2024?” showing contracts declinjng from 80¢ to almost worthlessness since Aug, then spiking to $1 today.
Steve Randy Waldman

@jonathankoren i think it’s very unlikely anything bad happened here. just to be clear.

the idea of an assassination market is you set up “prediction market” contracts on someone’s death. people who might like to see that death bet *against* it, keeping the price/probability of “yes” low. someone in a position to assassinate buys lots of cheap “yes” contract and flips the price/probability to 100¢ by their action. the financial losers effectively pay for a hit by an anonymous party.

Dec 29, 2024, 11:45 PM·Public·Mona for iPhone
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